“Robert Mugabe to no longer be President of Zimbabwe before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=747372 14.9%” on 2011-08-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-11-18
• muflax estimated 3% on 2011-12-19
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.