“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Mar 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-31.

• gwern estimated 8% on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750353 7.7%” on 2011-08-24
• Anubhav estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
• spqr0a1 estimated 2% on 2012-03-16
• Grognor estimated 3% and said “could be insider knowledge” on 2012-03-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2012-03-22
• lavalamp estimated 1% on 2012-03-26
• average_joe estimated 3% on 2012-03-29
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-31.