“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-07-01.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750354 5% (less than the sooner contract!)” on 2011-08-24
• Anubhav estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
• chimpsky estimated 1% on 2012-06-09
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-07-01.