“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Sep 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-01.

• gwern estimated 12% on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750355 21%” on 2011-08-24
• Anubhav estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
• nohat estimated 4% on 2012-08-21
• kilobug estimated 3% and said “There are talk for that since years, and it didn’t happen yet, so very unlikely it’ll happen in the next 40 days if it does happen at all. ” on 2012-08-23
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 5% on 2012-09-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 6% on 2012-09-20
• Pablo estimated 0% on 2012-09-29
• iconreforged estimated 1% on 2012-09-30
• Pablo   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-10-01.