“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 13% on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750356 14%” on 2011-08-24
• Anubhav estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.