“Same sex marriages to resume in California before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “current status: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Same-sex_marriage_in_California only a procedural matter active for september, then 90 days for decision and then maybe a procedure which might lead to marriage would happen…” on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=734011 nontrading” on 2011-08-24
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.