“Any US Supreme Court Justice to announce retirement/resignation before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 7% on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744044 nontrading” on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “this is hard to estimate… they have long tenures so I want to say very low, but they seem to pick random times to quit, so I can’t be too low. there are a lot of young justices now, but the old ones are pretty old…” on 2011-08-24
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2011-08-24
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.