“Sonia Sotomayor to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-08-24
• gwern on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=739510 nontrading” on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “female, healthy, chosen for youth (and so long tenure on court)… one of the old males will almost surely precede her barring accident etc.” on 2011-08-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-11-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2016-10-09
• timmartin estimated 3% on 2017-12-31
• ccokeefe estimated 2% on 2017-12-31
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.