“John Roberts to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court”

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-08-24
• gwern on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=739504 nontrading” on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “like sotomayor, young and healthy. (I sometimes wonder whether party strategists explicitly aim for youth these days)” on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “not to mention that high status (being Chief Justice) seems to come with longevity perks in a lot of fields, so why not the legal field?” on 2011-08-24
• Jack estimated 2% on 2011-08-31
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-09
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.