“Samuel Alito to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=739509 nontrading” on 2011-08-24
• Jack estimated 1% on 2011-08-31
• Jack estimated 2% on 2011-08-31
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2016-01-01” on 2016-01-01
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-09
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.