“Antonin Scalia to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court”

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-02-14.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2011-08-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-08-29
• Jack estimated 1% on 2011-08-31
• Jack estimated 2% on 2011-08-31
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2012-01-02
• JoshuaZ said “Deadline needs pushing back again. ” on 2013-01-01
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2013-01-01” on 2013-01-01
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2014-01-01” on 2014-01-14
• JoshuaZ said “Deadline needs pushing back again. ” on 2015-01-21
• rebellionkid estimated 10% on 2015-03-05
• Adele_L estimated 13% on 2015-04-02
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-02” on 2015-04-02
• gwern said “remarkable how stable the supreme court has been the past few years.” on 2015-04-02
• rebellionkid   judged this prediction right on 2016-02-14.
• rebellionkid said “Assuming death counts.” on 2016-02-14