“Antonin Scalia to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court”
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-02-14.
- gwern estimated 15% on 2011-08-24
- gwern on 2011-08-24
- JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-08-29
- Jack estimated 1% on 2011-08-31
- Jack estimated 2% on 2011-08-31
- gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2012-01-02
- JoshuaZ said “Deadline needs pushing back again. ” on 2013-01-01
- gwern changed the deadline from “on 2013-01-01” on 2013-01-01
- JoshuaZ said “Deadline needs pushing back again. ” on 2015-01-21
- rebellionkid estimated 10% on 2015-03-05
- Adele_L estimated 13% on 2015-04-02
- gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-02” on 2015-04-02
- gwern said “remarkable how stable the supreme court has been the past few years.” on 2015-04-02
- rebellionkid judged this prediction right on 2016-02-14.
- rebellionkid said “Assuming death counts.” on 2016-02-14