“Anthony Kennedy to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2011-08-24
• gwern on 2011-08-24
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=739506” on 2011-08-24
• gwern estimated 22% on 2011-08-24
• Jack estimated 25% on 2011-08-31
• themusicgod1 estimated 8% on 2016-10-09
• ccokeefe estimated 53% on 2017-12-21
• Bruno Parga said “Since the reason Scalia ceased being a Justice was death and not resignation or retirement, I’m marking this as correct.” on 2019-01-01
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2019-01-01.