I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2014-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2015-01-01 00:00 UTC
- bobpage estimated 55% on 2011-08-24
- bobpage said “I combined a bunch of Fermi estimates for this one, and was surprised it did not come out higher” on 2011-08-24
- gwern estimated 60% and said “I don’t know of any good WORM solid-state reliable long-term storage for bulk digital data which isn’t optical disc – tape seems even less likely than bluray or dvd” on 2011-08-24
- bobpage said “TrueCrypt rescue CD” on 2014-04-03
- bobpage judged this prediction right on 2014-04-03.
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