PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2014-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2015-01-01 00:00 UTC

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-03.

  • PseudonymousUser estimated 55% on 2011-08-24
  • PseudonymousUser said “I combined a bunch of Fermi estimates for this one, and was surprised it did not come out higher” on 2011-08-24
  • gwern estimated 60% and said “I don’t know of any good WORM solid-state reliable long-term storage for bulk digital data which isn’t optical disc – tape seems even less likely than bluray or dvd” on 2011-08-24
  • PseudonymousUser said “TrueCrypt rescue CD” on 2014-04-03
  • PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2014-04-03.