gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC)

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 94% on 2011-08-24
• PseudonymousUser said “By prediction I mean new prediction, not a new estimate on a prediction” on 2011-08-24
• gwern estimated 95% and said “IMO, both should count, but it’s your prediction.” on 2011-08-24
• fergus estimated 99% on 2011-09-05
• Michael Stevens estimated 90% on 2011-09-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 92% on 2011-09-15
• muflax estimated 99% on 2011-11-05
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 95% on 2011-11-05
• PseudonymousUser estimated 97% on 2011-11-29
• yurifury estimated 98% on 2011-11-29
• Anubhav estimated 100% and said “Is there really a 1% chance of this not happening, or are scenarios where this doesn’t happen just easy to call to mind? 99-percenters beware. ” on 2011-11-29
• Jayson Virissimo said “There are a few reasons I wouldn’t: a better substitute for predictionbook is released, I get bored of making predictions, I get a really great startup idea and put in 100 hours a week into it, etc…” on 2011-11-29
• Anubhav said “Just what I meant. Is probability of all that is really as high as 1/20? Keep in mind that something like that would have to happen by the end of this year and keep him away from the site for ALL of 2012.” on 2011-11-29
• Anubhav said “(Note the conjunction there.)” on 2011-11-29
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 95% and said “It’s risky to be more confident than gwern :)” on 2011-11-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 95% on 2011-11-29
• Grognor estimated 99% on 2011-12-06
• saturn estimated 99% on 2011-12-11
• Anubhav said “http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5096 There you go. Even if we don’t count the predictions from the new year’s thread…. ” on 2012-01-03
• Anubhav   judged this prediction right on 2012-01-03.