gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC)

Created by bobpage on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

  • bobpage estimated 94% on 2011-08-24
  • bobpage said “By prediction I mean new prediction, not a new estimate on a predictionon 2011-08-24
  • gwern estimated 95% and said “IMO, both should count, but it’s your prediction.on 2011-08-24
  • fergus estimated 99% on 2011-09-05
  • Michael Stevens estimated 90% on 2011-09-15
  • JoshuaZ estimated 92% on 2011-09-15
  • muflax estimated 99% on 2011-11-05
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 95% on 2011-11-05
  • bobpage estimated 97% on 2011-11-29
  • yurifury estimated 98% on 2011-11-29
  • Anubhav estimated 100% and said “Is there really a 1% chance of this not happening, or are scenarios where this doesn’t happen just easy to call to mind? 99-percenters beware. on 2011-11-29
  • Jayson Virissimo said “There are a few reasons I wouldn’t: a better substitute for predictionbook is released, I get bored of making predictions, I get a really great startup idea and put in 100 hours a week into it, etc…on 2011-11-29
  • Anubhav said “Just what I meant. Is probability of all that is really as high as 1/20? Keep in mind that something like that would have to happen by the end of this year and keep him away from the site for ALL of 2012.on 2011-11-29
  • Anubhav said “(Note the conjunction there.)on 2011-11-29
  • Laurent Bossavit estimated 95% and said “It’s risky to be more confident than gwern :)on 2011-11-29
  • JoshuaZ estimated 95% on 2011-11-29
  • Grognor estimated 99% on 2011-12-06
  • saturn estimated 99% on 2011-12-11
  • Anubhav said “ There you go. Even if we don’t count the predictions from the new year’s thread…. on 2012-01-03
  • Anubhav   judged this prediction right on 2012-01-03.

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