2013: Chinese household consumption <=35% of Chinese GDP —Michael Pettis

Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.

• gwern estimated 75% on 2011-08-28
• gwern on 2011-08-28
• gwern changed their prediction from “2013: Chinese household consumption <=35% of Chinese GDP” on 2011-08-28
• gwern said ““By 2013 Chinese household consumption will still not have exceeded the 35% of Chinese GDP reached in 2009. In fact it will probably be lower.” http://mpettis.com/2011/08/some-predictions-for-the-rest-of-the-decade/” on 2011-08-28
• mat33 estimated 55% and said “Chinese household consumption isn’t all to likely to grew fast. But they may have trouble with export/import.” on 2011-10-08
• RandomThinker said “This was wrong in 2011 already. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/household-final-consumption-expenditure-etc-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html ” on 2013-01-03
• RandomThinker said “If you interp his prediction as of the end date only, then we still don’t have final numbers yet.” on 2013-01-03
• RandomThinker said “This guy might be a good source of predictions to bet against” on 2013-01-03
• marchdown estimated 80% on 2013-02-01
• DSanders estimated 20% on 2013-02-14
• RandomThinker estimated 35% on 2013-02-24
• Ken estimated 30% on 2013-06-18
• Tuxedage   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-03-09.