Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to leave the Euro —Michael Pettis

Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2011-08-28
• gwern said ““Spain and several countries [Greece, Portugal, Ireland], perhaps even Italy (but probably not France) will be forced to leave the euro…” http://mpettis.com/2011/08/some-predictions-for-the-rest-of-the-decade/” on 2011-08-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 42% and said “All of them? Seems unlikely. ” on 2011-08-29
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 30% on 2011-08-29
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 10% on 2013-03-31
• RandomThinker estimated 20% and said “Cyprus!” on 2013-04-01
• themusicgod1 estimated 33% and said “too soon.” on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 2% on 2019-01-03
• Pablo estimated 0% on 2019-12-31
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.