2015-2016: German GDP growth > French and British GDP growth —Michael Pettis

Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2011-08-28
• gwern said ““…the subsequent retaliation by the deficit countries will cause German growth to drop to zero or negative for many years….By 2015-16 German economic performance will be much worse than that of France and the UK”” on 2011-08-28
• gwern said “http://mpettis.com/2011/08/some-predictions-for-the-rest-of-the-decade/” on 2011-08-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% and said “The wording of this is suboptimal. As written it isn’t clear the prediction is that it will be greater than both (which the comment makes clear is the intention). Maybe change the “or” to an “and”? ” on 2011-08-29
• gwern changed their prediction from “2015-2016: German GDP growth > French or British GDP growth —Michael Pettis” on 2011-08-29
• gwern said ““Germany’s economy may have been doing well earlier this year, but it isn’t anymore; in the past quarter, it grew just 0.1 per cent, more slowly than the U.S.’s. Germany is heavily dependent on exports, including exports to the rest..” on 2011-08-29
• gwern said “http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2011/09/05/110905ta_talk_surowiecki” on 2011-08-29
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-09
• gwern said “germany: 1.7/1.5; france: 1.2/?; UK: 2/2. marking wrong” on 2017-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.