The current criteria for awarding the “Poseidon award” offered by the seastead insitute, will be met by someone by 2015.

Created by Konkvistador on 2011-08-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by a0c4a123f7 on 2016-01-01.

• Konkvistador estimated 5% on 2011-08-30
• Konkvistador changed their prediction from “The current criteria for awarding the “Poseidon award” offered by the seastead insitute : Has at least 50 full-time residents. Is financially self-sufficient. Offers seastead real estate on the open market. Has de-facto political autonomy. ” on 2011-08-30
• Konkvistador said “http://seasteading.org/about-seasteading/our-strategy* Has at least 50 full-time residents. * Is financially self-sufficient. * Offers seastead real estate on the open market. * Has de-facto political autonomy.” on 2011-08-30
• gwern estimated 5% and said “financially self-sufficient is the real kicker here – a random cruise ship has lots of fulltimers, real estate, and automny if it wants – but it’s a financial sink.” on 2011-08-30
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2011-08-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-08-31
• muflax estimated 1% on 2011-08-31
• Jack estimated 6% on 2011-08-31
• anonym estimated 4% on 2011-08-31
• gimpf estimated 4% on 2011-09-01
• Athrelon estimated 1% on 2012-09-27
• High_Fiber_Twigs estimated 5% and said “gwern: what’s to prevent a bunch of people who work remotely through the internet doing this? nevertheless, still doubtful it will happen.” on 2013-04-15
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2013-04-15
• a0c4a123f7 estimated 5% on 2013-04-15
• a0c4a123f7   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.