Before January 1, 2030, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 70% on 2011-08-31
  • gwern estimated 45% on 2011-09-01
  • gwern estimated 55% on 2011-09-01
  • JoshuaZ said “Hmm, I’m worried that you are that much less confident than I am (especially because you are very well calibrated.) on 2011-09-01
  • gwern said “low confidence because I don’t follow the practicalities very closely (for example, last I heard only 15 had been factored, and supposedly the existing techniques had exponentially worse problems with scaling). to reflect my ignoranceon 2011-09-01
  • JoshuaZ estimated 62% and said “Yes, 15 was factored on an NMR system. But since then NMR systems have been largely abandoned as not feasibly scalible. Hmm, I’m probably over confident. Reducing percentage accordingly. on 2011-09-01
  • Anubhav estimated 40% on 2011-10-10
  • themusicgod1 said “ was marked correcton 2016-10-09
  • themusicgod1   judged this prediction right on 2016-10-09.

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