Before January 1, 2045, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2045-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.

• JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2011-08-31
• gwern estimated 70% on 2011-09-01
• gwern estimated 75% on 2011-09-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 79% and said “Updating due to probable overconfidence. ” on 2011-09-01
• Anubhav estimated 80% on 2011-10-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 15% on 2016-03-16
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-03-16
• CarlShulman estimated 84% and said “Significant progress on QCs in last 5 years. Questionably, but arguably, already done:https://medium.com/the-physics-arxiv-blog/the-mathematical-trick-that-helped-smash-the-record-for-the-largest-number-ever-factorised-by-a-77fde88499#” on 2016-03-17
• JoshuaZ said “This isn’t a Shore algorithm variant really. ” on 2016-03-17
• ChristianKl estimated 86% on 2016-03-17
• CarlShulman said “JoshuaZ, I agree.” on 2016-03-22
• CarlShulman said “Also, I’m assuming we all mean Shor’s algorithm here.” on 2016-03-22
• themusicgod1 said “http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3213 was marked right” on 2016-10-09
• themusicgod1   judged this prediction right on 2016-10-09.