Before January 1, 2020, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore’s algorithm or some similar algorithm.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-07.

• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2011-08-31
• gwern estimated 40% on 2011-09-01
• Serge estimated 75% on 2011-09-01
• JoshuaZ said “Kurokikaze, you seem to be surprisingly confident about this prediction. Is there something that is making you make this prediction that we should know about? Is there something basic that gwern and I are missing? ” on 2011-09-03
• Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-10-10
• JoshuaZ said “Note that I was recently pointed to this paper http://arxiv.org/abs/1111.3726 which seems to not yet have been accepted. ” on 2012-03-20
• Anubhav said “o.O That was quick. (I’d wait until the paper gets published before marking right, though.)” on 2012-03-21
• gwern said “http://m.phys.org/news/2012-04-largest-factored-quantum-algorithm.html says it’s was published in Physical Review Letters… “an alternative to Shor’s algorithm called adiabatic quantum computation (AQC)”” on 2012-10-06
• JoshuaZ said “Seems like it should be marked as correct. Wow. ” on 2012-10-07
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2012-10-07.