By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2031-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2011-09-02
• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-09-03
• fergus estimated 10% on 2011-09-05
• Robert Kosten estimated 10% on 2011-09-11
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2019-01-03