LW User:Morendil will tag >=500 predictions on PB.com using my suggested ad hoc scheme.

Created by gwern on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-09-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% and said “Um, so I just said I’m going to start tagging things. And I have no idea what a good tag for this prediction would be. ” on 2011-09-04
• gwern said “How about ‘lesswrong’, since it’s a prediction made on and about lesswrong, and then ‘personal’, since it’s about the actions of an otherwise non-public figure” on 2011-09-04
• JoshuaZ said “tags:[lesswrong][personal]” on 2011-10-05
• gwern said “haven’t seen very many tags, so marking wrong” on 2012-02-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-02.