HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.

• ArisKatsaris estimated 45% on 2011-09-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2011-09-05
• JoshuaZ said “Tags: Harry Potter, HMPR” on 2011-09-05
• gwern estimated 10% and said “still think it’s most likely quirrel or snape; equiprobable between lupin and sirius” on 2011-09-05
• Robert Kosten estimated 60% on 2011-09-11
• Michael Stevens estimated 20% on 2011-09-15
• Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-10-10
• Grognor estimated 7% on 2011-12-27
• faws estimated 30% on 2011-12-28
• lavalamp estimated 5% on 2012-03-27
• beo_shaffer estimated 5% on 2012-04-03
• Anubhav estimated 0% and said “Per Eliezer’s ‘obvious answers are correct’ claim.” on 2012-04-03
• ArisKatsaris changed their prediction from “In 'Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality' the character of Cloak-and-Hat will eventually be revealed to be Sirius Black.” on 2012-04-08
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 25% on 2012-04-20
• Sarokrae estimated 10% on 2012-04-29
• jesyspa estimated 1% and said “Don’t see any motive nor foreshadowing; also, only teachers can obliviate without triggering the wards.” on 2012-05-13
• ygert estimated 2% and said “I’d like to think this is true, and it was a pet theory of mine before the latest chapters, but with all the complications, it seems next to impossible.” on 2012-12-25
• William-Quixote estimated 5% on 2013-07-01
• azax1 estimated 15% on 2013-07-19
• Osuniev estimated 0% on 2013-08-02
• nigr estimated 1% on 2013-08-15
• JoshuaZ said “Should have deadline extended. Recommend a 6th month extension. But note looks extremely unlikely at this point. ” on 2013-09-05
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2013-09-05
• ArisKatsaris changed the deadline from “on 2013-09-04” on 2013-11-01
• DEA7TH estimated 3% and said “I don’t think this is his style, also C&H gets around the wards” on 2014-02-28
• Oscar_Cunningham   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-26.