“Julia Gillard to no longer be Prime Minister of Australia before midnight ET 30 Sep 2011” (excluding death) —Intrade
- gwern estimated 20% on 2011-09-05
- gwern said “reading WP, no election announced yet, no obvious scandals. only possibility seems to be https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Gillard_Government#Calls_for_her_to_stand_down which is weak” on 2011-09-05
- Sandra Åhlén estimated 15% on 2011-09-06
- fergus estimated 10% on 2011-09-09
- Ken estimated 0% and said “seems extremely unlikely to happen in the next 17 days, unless I’m missing something” on 2011-09-12
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-30.
Please log in to respond to or judge prediction