“Ali Abdullah Saleh to no longer be President of Yemen before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2011-09-06
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=746814 44%” on 2011-09-06
• gwern said “saleh has agreed to resign: http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle09.asp?xfile=data ” on 2011-11-24
• gwern said “intrade at 1% confusion! http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=746814 how will intrade judge? saleh forfeits the powers of president but retains title http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/23/world/meast/yemen-unrest/index.html” on 2011-11-24
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-12-26
• gwern said “intrade 2%, no clarification from staff. guess I’ll mark this as wrong – not even clear saleh is staying in the country http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gk7u0RmEVW5zizTg02Yb3mr0TaOw?docId=878c30f7b2be4527bb1d56251dbf727b” on 2011-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.
• gwern said “a good lesson – I got it right, but not for the reason I expected! thought he’d repress protests with US help, not that he’d engineer a bizarre immunity deal that leaves him president de jure and not de facto” on 2011-12-31