Nicolas Sarkozy to be elected President of France in 2012 —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-05-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-06.

• gwern estimated 65% on 2011-09-06
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749535 nontrading” on 2011-09-06
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 60% on 2011-09-07
• kilobug estimated 35% on 2011-11-19
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 45% and said “Not doing too well in the polls.” on 2012-01-24
• Leo estimated 55% on 2012-01-25
• faws estimated 35% on 2012-01-25
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 33% and said “The main thing that might shake things up is if Le Pen ends up not running.” on 2012-02-15
• RandomThinker estimated 35% and said “The trend is against him, although he’s back up to even lately.” on 2012-03-15
• gwern said “lost to Hollande” on 2012-05-06
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-05-06.