GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1006: Will Italy restructure or default on its debt by 31 December 2011?

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-09-07
• gwern made the prediction on 2011-09-07
• gwern made the prediction on 2011-12-14
• gwern said “still selling bonds as normal, albeit with some odd skulduggery from EU people which has led to accusations the purchases are just a form of arbitrage.” on 2011-12-30
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-30.