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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1007: Will there be a lethal confrontation involving government forces in the South China Sea or East China Sea by 31 December 2011?

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-14.

  • gwern estimated 7% on 2011-09-07
  • gwern made the prediction on 2011-12-14
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-14.
  • gwern said “I feel completely gypped by this one. the fine-print says civilians count as well. Uh yeah because I think of civilians when I read ‘government forces’! stupid Chinese fisherman…on 2011-12-14
  • gwern said “heh, even GJP agrees this was a questionable closure; but IARPA closed it and hence it must remainon 2011-12-23