GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1009: By 1 January 2012 will the Iraqi government sign a security agreement that allows US troops to remain in Iraq?

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2011-09-07
• gwern made the prediction on 2011-12-14
• gwern said “GJP has suspended it for complex IARPA-related reasons; however, I think I can safely mark this wrong.” on 2011-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.