NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2012

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2011-09-07
• gwern said “it’s not even clear what 4.0 will be or whether it exists or whether it will be released with 3.0, so… considerable uncertainty with 4.0 predictions. assuming 3.0 released in 2011, 1 year seems improbable” on 2011-09-07
• gwern estimated 20% on 2011-09-07
• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-09-12
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2012-01-03
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.