NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2015

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• gwern estimated 17% on 2011-09-07
• gwern estimated 15% on 2011-09-12
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.