NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga, Asuka will try to go berserk and will be killed by the MPEs; 3rd Impact subsequently starts
- gwern estimated 40% on 2011-09-07
- gwern said “it’s pretty plausible given stage 87… can’t help but think there are so many possibilities that this is too high, though” on 2011-09-07
- gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2012-01-14
- gwern said “nope. asuka did not try to go berserk & does not seem to have been killed as of stage 89; and 3rd Impact has started. marking wrong.” on 2012-03-01
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-01.
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