NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga, Asuka will try to go berserk and will be killed by the MPEs; 3rd Impact subsequently starts

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-01.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2011-09-07
• gwern said “it’s pretty plausible given stage 87… can’t help but think there are so many possibilities that this is too high, though” on 2011-09-07
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2012-01-14
• gwern said “nope. asuka did not try to go berserk & does not seem to have been killed as of stage 89; and 3rd Impact has started. marking wrong.” on 2012-03-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-01.