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NGE: 4.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

  • gwern estimated 20% on 2011-09-07
  • gwern said “less certain than with 3.0 because probably even Khara has no idea what the hell they are doing with 4.0” on 2011-09-07
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2016-01-01” on 2016-01-01
  • eviscerator   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-08-14.