NGE: Neither 3.0 nor 4.0 will be longer than 60 minutes

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-09-07
• gwern said “not strictly independent possibilities – if 3.0 is <=60 minutes, 4.0 is very likely to be <=60 minutes too” on 2011-09-07
• gwern said “3.0 was 106 minutes, so definitely wrong” on 2016-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.