HP MoR: Eliezer will publish ch78 before 7PM PST 13 September 2011

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-13; judged wrong by fergus on 2011-09-13.

• gwern estimated 45% on 2011-09-09
• gwern said “see http://www.fanfiction.net/s/5782108/77/Harry_Potter_and_the_Methods_of_Rationality” on 2011-09-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2011-09-09
• fergus estimated 30% on 2011-09-09
• Robert Kosten estimated 70% on 2011-09-11
• gimpf estimated 48% on 2011-09-13
• fergus   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-13.
• gimpf said “Hm. PST is UTC-8. Something is wrong. The judgment is too early, isn’t it?” on 2011-09-13
• gimpf said “Now I see the “before”. Gaah. Given that he always publishes at 7PM, this of course is known long ago. /me stupid.” on 2011-09-13
• gwern said “right. that’s why I emphasized it; and notice when the deadline was set” on 2011-09-13