AOL & Yahoo to merge by 2013.

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-09-09
• gwern said “see http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2011/09/rumor-aols-tim-armstrong-wants-to-merge-with-yahoo/ they’ve discussed it seriously twice” on 2011-09-09
• Ken estimated 25% on 2011-09-10
• Robert Kosten estimated 60% on 2011-09-11
• Ken estimated 20% on 2011-09-12
• faws said “Does some third company buying both count? Or some third company buying one of them, keeping some bits and selling others to the other company?” on 2011-09-23
• gwern said “I think I would count a full purchase of both by the same third party as correct, but not any spinning off. (suppose yahoo spins off flickr and Aol buys it a few months later. does that look like an AOL-Yahoo merger? nah.)” on 2011-09-23
• faws estimated 20% on 2011-09-23
• Isaac estimated 80% on 2011-10-01
• Isaac estimated 80% on 2011-10-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 30% on 2011-11-04
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.