My email to Rafaela Hillerbrand <rafaela.hillerbrand@rwth-aachen.de> will bounce or otherwise be end in an error.

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-17.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-09-09
• gwern said “there, happy papermachine?” on 2011-09-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% and said “reference class; recent documents containing it” on 2011-09-09
• gwern said “no error yet; no reply though” on 2011-09-17
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-17.