PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

There will be a major terrorist attack (>= 60 deaths) between 2011-09-10 20:00 UTC and 2011-09-12 06:00 UTC anywhere in the world except Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iraq.

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2011-09-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12.

  • PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2011-09-10
  • PseudonymousUser said “First death must occur in the specified window” on 2011-09-10
  • nshepperd estimated 0% and said “2% seems too high, even supposing there were some correlation between dates and terrorist activities.” on 2011-09-10
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2011-09-10
  • Ken estimated 1% on 2011-09-10
  • gwern estimated 1% and said “1% is only an approximation of course…” on 2011-09-10
  • fergus estimated 1% on 2011-09-11
  • Robert Kosten   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-11.
  • Robert Kosten   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-09-11.
  • Robert Kosten estimated 90% on 2011-09-11
  • Robert Kosten estimated 10% on 2011-09-11
  • PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-12.