A professional athlete will not voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.

Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2041-01-01

• gwern estimated 20% on 2011-09-11
• gwern said ““I said I had little doubt that it will eventually happen but that it would be at least 20-30 years before we get that far.” (emphasis added) http://www.monoxus.com/2011/09/insanely-competitive-or-just-enhanced.html” on 2011-09-11
• Robert Kosten estimated 50% on 2011-09-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2011-09-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 25% on 2011-09-11
• Ken estimated 25% on 2011-09-12
• gimpf estimated 30% on 2011-09-13
• Leo estimated 65% and said “You mean “no pro athlete will”, no “some pro athlete won’t”, right? They’ll ban it.” on 2012-01-26
• RandomThinker estimated 35% on 2012-08-05
• army1987 estimated 30% on 2012-08-05
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 70% and said “I guess that will fall under doping.” on 2019-01-01