Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2011-09-12
• PseudonymousUser said ““inside or within” means the political borders at the time of detonation” on 2011-09-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2011-09-12
• gwern estimated 1% and said “hm. why *thermo*nuclear bomb? H-bombs are very hard to make even when you’ve achieved fission, and for the most part, you don’t really need h-bombs to terrorize or attack neighboring or near countries.” on 2011-09-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Good point. Updating per Gwern’s observation. ” on 2011-09-12
• Robert Kosten estimated 10% on 2011-09-13
• faws estimated 0% on 2011-09-23
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-09-30
• two2thehead estimated 1% on 2016-09-30
• themusicgod1 estimated 14% on 2016-10-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 1% and said “oh i hit this one too” on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 3% and said “What’s the base-rate for global nuclear war?” on 2019-01-01
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-01-01.