The personal use of cannabis will be de jure legalized in at least one U.S state by 2020.

Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by roxton on 2013-01-11.

• Gedusa estimated 60% on 2011-09-13
• Gedusa changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2011-09-13
• gwern said “in what way does california not already count? https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Cannabis_in_California#Medical_marijuana” on 2011-09-14
• Gedusa said “Only technically available if you have a medical ailment. I should’ve been clearer: personal use = recreational use. I agree it’s de facto legal, but still not de jure in terms of recreational uses.” on 2011-09-15
• u_ estimated 40% on 2011-09-18
• Robert Kosten estimated 60% on 2011-09-19
• roxton estimated 60% on 2011-09-19
• Isaac estimated 100% on 2011-10-01
• Serge estimated 65% on 2011-10-01
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 55% on 2011-11-15
• roxton   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-11.
• Tuxedage said “70” on 2013-01-13
• Tuxedage said “god damnit, I misread this prediction too. I need to start paying close attention to the wording.” on 2013-01-13