BitcoinEXpress attack on Namecoin will be successful in reversing the hashchain at least temporarily

Created by gwern on 2011-09-13; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-30.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2011-09-13
• gwern said “announcement: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=43465.msg521136#msg521136” on 2011-09-13
• gwern said “parallel prediction/bet: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=101” on 2011-09-13
• gwern said “consequences: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=43465.msg522211#msg522211” on 2011-09-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2011-09-14
• Serge estimated 40% on 2011-09-18
• Robert Kosten estimated 70% on 2011-09-19
• gwern said “attack not even attempted, called off: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=44149.msg526729#msg526729” on 2011-09-30
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-30.