SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 15, 2012

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-01-15.

• JoshuaZ estimated 42% on 2011-09-19
• gwern estimated 55% on 2011-09-19
• JoshuaZ said “Interesting, you give a higher chance for a successful docking soon than I do, but a lower chance for the longterm docking than I do. ” on 2011-09-19
• gwern estimated 40% on 2011-09-19
• Robert Kosten estimated 70% on 2011-09-19
• JoshuaZ said “Elon Musk now says delayed to probably January at the earliest http://www.universetoday.com/89347/spacex-to-develop-a-fully-reusable-launch-system-and-elon-musk-wants-to-send-humans-to-mars/ tags:[space][SpaceX][Dragon][ISS] ” on 2011-09-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% and said “Now slate for Feb at the earliest. ” on 2012-01-08
• modulus estimated 1% on 2012-01-09
• kiba estimated 0% on 2012-01-10
• kiba   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-15.