By 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-09-21
  • JoshuaZ said “Chance that someone will lie about it. Look how there have been marginal people who have claimed to be involved in alien projects. This is a superprediction of tags [9/11 truth][politics]on 2011-09-21
  • gwern estimated 10% and said “glad you were clearer because when I saw it I thought ‘well, 0% for a major political appointee, but any random govt official, in their thousands and millions? that seems pretty likely at some point’. 10% is a guess on my parton 2011-09-21
  • fergus estimated 5% on 2011-09-21
  • bobpage estimated 20% on 2011-09-22
  • faws estimated 15% on 2011-09-23
  • Anubhav estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
  • themusicgod1 estimated 55% and said “but who would believe them?on 2016-10-09
  • pranomostro estimated 12% on 2019-01-01
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.

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