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'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year'

Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.

  • gwern estimated 75% on 2011-09-23
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 54% on 2011-09-23
  • faws estimated 75% on 2011-09-23
  • fergus estimated 70% on 2011-09-24
  • Will Newsome estimated 55% on 2011-09-24
  • clemux estimated 70% on 2011-09-24
  • JoshuaZ estimated 90% and said “See also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3431” on 2011-09-24
  • Sandra Åhlén estimated 75% on 2011-09-29
  • muflax estimated 70% on 2011-09-30
  • army1987 estimated 50% and said “(Would MINOS repeating the experiment with the same precision and failing to find v > c count as “found to be mistaken”? Or does the cause of the error have to be found? I’m assuming the latter, otherwise I’d say 75%.)” on 2011-10-03
  • siodine estimated 98% on 2011-10-06
  • mat33 estimated 10% and said “Dark matter. Then – dark energy. We may have to patch Special and General Relativity again.” on 2011-10-08
  • Metus estimated 85% on 2011-10-08
  • Sniffnoy estimated 94% on 2011-10-08
  • Sniffnoy estimated 87% on 2011-10-08
  • Sniffnoy estimated 90% on 2011-10-08
  • jasticE estimated 50% on 2011-10-09
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 65% on 2011-10-09
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 65% on 2011-10-09
  • abamf   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-09.
  • abamf   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-09.
  • abamf estimated 45% on 2011-10-09
  • Anubhav estimated 70% on 2011-10-10
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 75% on 2011-10-10
  • Daniel Mehkeri estimated 75% and said “For “unreproducible” instead of “mistaken”, see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3781” on 2011-10-10
  • BrandonReinhart estimated 40% and said “Doesn’t seem like enough time.” on 2011-10-12
  • Swimmy   judged this prediction right on 2011-10-19.
  • Swimmy   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-19.
  • Swimmy estimated 90% and said “There are already some leads against it and there were reasons to suspect it beforehand. It’s a big enough deal that it should be resolved quickly.” on 2011-10-19
  • fortified estimated 90% on 2011-10-19
  • pcm estimated 75% on 2011-10-20
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 80% on 2011-10-23
  • JoshuaZ said “ICARUS data suggests it is wrong but doesn’t point to where the problem is. Since this makes it more likely to be wrong, presumably should update more in the direction of the mistake being found in a year since that implies it is wrong? ” on 2011-10-23
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 77% and said “slight update based on JoshuaZ’s argument” on 2011-10-26
  • annis estimated 99% on 2011-11-03
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 80% on 2011-11-10
  • RobertLumley estimated 85% on 2011-11-10
  • JoshuaZ estimated 55% and said “Updating on OPERA’s new work which seems to confirm this. ” on 2011-11-18
  • Anubhav estimated 10% and said “Likewise. ” on 2011-11-18
  • Isaac estimated 65% on 2011-11-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 62% and said “Updating on http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2012/02/breaking-news-error-undoes-faster.html” on 2012-02-22
  • JoshuaZ estimated 95% and said “Updating, current consensus is pretty strong but will wait until deadline or the MINOS data comes out to mark as right. ” on 2012-04-04
  • Sarokrae estimated 70% on 2012-04-29
  • gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-09-08.