'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history'
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
- gwern estimated 70% on 2011-09-25
- gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2015.htm#queen-elizabeth-ii-2015 apparently an 85 year old woman has a life expectancy of ~6 more years, which comfortably covers now to 2015” on 2011-09-25
- JoshuaZ estimated 68% on 2011-10-01
- Robert Kosten estimated 80% on 2011-10-04
- Daniel Mehkeri estimated 85% and said “Permission to sing God Save the Queen at an annoyingly loud volume, sir?” on 2011-10-11
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 80% on 2011-10-11
- muflax estimated 70% on 2011-11-03
- chimpsky estimated 85% on 2012-06-07
- RandomThinker estimated 75% on 2012-06-08
- JoshuaZ estimated 70% and said “Updating. ” on 2012-06-08
- InquilineKea estimated 90% on 2015-07-10
- JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2015-07-10
- _W_ estimated 90% on 2015-07-19
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 95% on 2015-07-28
- JoshuaZ estimated 91% on 2015-07-28
- danohu estimated 99% on 2015-08-08
- InquilineKea estimated 98% on 2015-08-08
- Josh Holland estimated 99% on 2015-08-13
- JoshuaZ estimated 95% on 2015-08-13
- JoshuaZ estimated 99% on 2015-08-13
- average_joe estimated 85% on 2015-08-28
- HonoreDB estimated 100% and said “I haven’t heard anything to justify a 1% chance of of QE2 dying in the next two weeks.” on 2015-08-28
- JoshuaZ estimated 100% on 2015-08-29
- Nikolas estimated 99% on 2015-09-03
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 99% on 2015-09-03
- kuudes estimated 99% on 2015-09-03
- PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2015-09-04
- JoshuaZ estimated 100% and said “Unless she dies in the next 12 hours or so…” on 2015-09-08
- kuudes judged this prediction right on 2015-09-09.