'A pill to prevent sunburn' is available either over-the-counter or by prescription

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-09-25
• gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2016.htm#sunburn http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/aug/31/sunscreen-pill-coral-five-years” on 2011-09-25
• fergus estimated 5% on 2011-09-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-09-26
• Robert Kosten estimated 5% on 2011-10-04
• gwern said “has anyone heard about anything being released?” on 2016-01-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2016-01-02
• PseudonymousUser said “From Gwern’s Guardian link, I saw that the researcher heading this was “Paul Long” of “King’s College London”” on 2016-01-04
• PseudonymousUser said “He signed a deal in 2012 with a skincare startup called “Aethic”. See http://www.kcl.ac.uk/lsm/research/divisions/ips/newsevents/newsrecords/2012/sept/Kings-to-develop-unique-sunscreen-with-Aethic-.aspx” on 2016-01-04
• PseudonymousUser said “From Aethic’s faq page, it appears they only have one product, “Sovee”, which predates the coral-algae-as-sunscreen research. See https://www.aethic.com/faq/” on 2016-01-04
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-04.
• PseudonymousUser said “His linkedin page also mentions that he is “currently” doing this research still, so it’s fair to say he isn’t done yet. See https://uk.linkedin.com/in/paul-long-92539910” on 2016-01-04
• PseudonymousUser said “Yeah, he’s definitely still doing the research: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Paul_Long3/publications” on 2016-01-04
• PseudonymousUser said “This paper from December 2014 is how the algae produce the MAAs (“Mycosporine-Like Amino Acids”) which are used for UV protection. So yeah, he’s still busy.” on 2016-01-04
• PseudonymousUser said “Paper: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/269467304_O-Methyltransferase_Is_Shared_between_the_Pentose_Phosphate_and_Shikimate_Pathways_and_Is_Essential_for_Mycosporine-Like_Amino_Acid_Biosynthesis_in_Anabaena_variabilis_ATCC_29413” on 2016-01-04
• PseudonymousUser said “That covers the broader interpretation of the prediction, which I took to be “the algae research will be commercialized for UV protection of human skin”” on 2016-01-04
• PseudonymousUser said “For the strict interpretation: it seems Paul Long bailed on the ‘pill’ approach mentioned in August 2011 when he signed the Aethic deal in December 2012. So this prediction did not come true under under the strict interpretation either.” on 2016-01-04