M1A3 Abrams tanks deployed and operational on battlefields by 2018

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2018-01-08.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-09-25
• gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2017.htm#m1a3 there is surprisingly little online about a tank that’s supposed to be mass manufactured and deployed with trained personnel in ~6 years.” on 2011-09-25
• Robert Kosten estimated 80% on 2011-10-04
• themusicgod1 estimated 37% on 2016-10-09
• gwern said “https://www.thebalance.com/the-abrams-tank-next-generation-3345048 I guess this one was right.” on 2018-01-08
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2018-01-08.