M1A3 Abrams tanks deployed and operational on battlefields by 2018
- gwern estimated 30% on 2011-09-25
- gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2017.htm#m1a3 there is surprisingly little online about a tank that’s supposed to be mass manufactured and deployed with trained personnel in ~6 years.” on 2011-09-25
- Robert Kosten estimated 80% on 2011-10-04
- themusicgod1 estimated 37% on 2016-10-09
- gwern said “https://www.thebalance.com/the-abrams-tank-next-generation-3345048 I guess this one was right.” on 2018-01-08
- gwern judged this prediction right on 2018-01-08.
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