'the countries of Iceland, Macedonia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have all joined the ranks of the EU member nations' by 2018

Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-09-26
• gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2017.htm#eu Iceland, at least, doesn’t look likely to join, and these days, the question is more like ‘how much will the EU fragment’, not how much larger will it become…” on 2011-09-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 10% and said “Conjunction fallacy seems strong with this one. ” on 2011-09-27
• Robert Kosten estimated 5% on 2011-10-04
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 4% on 2012-04-29
• halfwaytogallifrey estimated 1% on 2013-02-11
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2016-10-09
• two2thehead estimated 2% on 2016-10-09
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-01.